Medical School Chance Predictor

What Are Your Odds of Getting Into Medical School?

Updated for 2024!

The PDr Chance Predictor was created to help guide medical school applicants as they begin to determine their own candidacy and the range of schools that they should consider applying to. It takes into account the most consistent top factors in medical school admissions criteria based on retrospective analysis. We understand that there are many other personal and unique components to an applicant, and unfortunately these cannot be represented in this tool. PDr does not guarantee any admission decisions and does not advise applicants on where to apply based solely off the PDr Chance Predictor. Select your performance below!

Medical School Acceptance Rates
Average MCAT score by section
MCAT is scored between 118 and 132
MCAT is scored between 118 and 132
MCAT is scored between 118 and 132
MCAT is scored between 118 and 132
GPA You will be considered on all secondary grades, but most importantly on your cumulative GPA (cGPA) from your most recent academic degree. Biology, Chemistry, Physics, and Math (BCPM) grades are used to determine your science GPA (sGPA). Your sGPA may impact your candidacy if it differs from your cGPA.
Enter value between 3.00 and 4.00
Enter value between 3.00 and 4.00
Demographics State residency often improves your chance of admission to in-state schools. Many state schools take less than 20% from out-of-state(OOS). Additionally, in-state tuition tends to be lower. While admissions decisions are not made on the basis of ethnicity, the effect of ethnicity on admissions is statistically well defined.

Chance Categories Key

Your GPA, MCAT, state of residence, and ethnicity were used to create an individual ProspectiveDoctor Predictor score based on an algorithm that we created. Each school is also assigned a ProspectiveDoctor Predictor Score. Your score is then compared to schools’ scores to help decide the following categories.

  • Target
    This range is your sweet spot. You have the best chance of getting accepted into a medical school when your range more closely mirrors the range that they accept. There are no “safety schools,” and being overqualified for other schools is not necessarily an advantage. Apply to more of these.
  • Reach
    These are the schools that you are still in contention for, but your success will rely more on the other strengths of your application. Apply to a small handful of these.
  • Undershoot
    Apply to a small handful of these schools if you feel weak in some areas of your application. Based on your medical school credentials you have a fairly competitive shot at acceptance at one of these schools.
  • Far undershoot
    These schools are numerically too low to be considered a safety school. Don't apply to significantly lower-tier medical schools as they may reject overqualified applicants to save interview spots. Apply to them sparingly.
  • Far reach
    If you apply to these schools, you'll need to have significant strengths in other areas of your application to be considered. It's recommended to apply to these schools cautiously.


What are your odds of getting into medical school? Weigh your MCAT, GPA, and demographic info to get your odds.
What are your odds of getting into medical school? Weigh your MCAT, GPA, and demographic info to get your odds.

Chance Predictor FAQs

How was the data for the PDr Chance Predictor collected?

The information featured in the PDr Chance Predictor was collected from admissions data from all medical schools shown. The information is verified and analyzed retrospectively, with the most consistent top factors being extracted as inputs for the tool. The median GPAs and MCAT scores were provided.

Where can I find more information on matriculant data online?

US News Education, and the AAMC’s Medical School Admission Requirements website are all comprehensive resources that are available to medical school applicants.

How many schools should I apply to?

It varies, but the national average is around 12-15 schools. This number can be limited by the amount of money and time that you have to complete the applications. In the face of an incredibly variable application process, the more schools you apply to, the higher the chance of being accepted. For example, a lot of California applicants apply to 20-30 school because California state schools are very competitive. At the end of the day, unless you are a superstar applicant, you should be aiming to applying to at least 20 schools.

Why do my chances change with different ethnicity categories?

While admissions decisions are not made on the basis of ethnicity, the effects of ethnicity on admissions is statistically well defined. You can learn more about this on the AAMC website.

Does the state I live in affect my medical school application?

Applying to medical schools as an in-state resident often improves your chances during the admissions process, as many state schools accept less than 20% of students from out-of-state (OOS). Often, in-state tuition also tends to be lower. The PDr Chance Predictor takes these factors into account by inputting state of residency.

What is the cGPA?

This is the cumulative GPA from your latest academic degree, whether that was a BA, BS, or a Masters degree. Although admissions committees will see all of your postsecondary grades, for screening purposes this is the GPA that is normally seen.

What is the sGPA?

This is the science GPA, otherwise known as the BCPM (Biology, Chemistry, Physics, Math). This number is used by schools to determine your competency in core science disciplines. If your sGPA is above or below your cumulative GPA it can have an impact on your candidacy that is factored into our chance predictor.

What is the MCAT?

The MCAT is essentially the qualification test for applying to medical schools. The MCAT regularly undergoes changes that are reflected in the Chance Predictor.

Search for Medical Schools in a Whole New Way

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