Medical School Chance Predictor

Updated for 2018 and Better than Ever!



The PDr Chance Predictor was created to help guide medical school applicants as they begin to determine their own candidacy and the range of schools that they should consider applying to. It takes into account the most consistent top factors in medical school admissions criteria based on retrospective analysis. We understand that there are many other personal and unique components to an applicant, and unfortunately these cannot be represented in this tool. PDr does not guarantee any admission decisions and does not advise applicants on where to apply based solely off the PDr Chance Predictor.






School Type cGPA sGPA MCAT BS PS SS CA State State Factor Chance PDr Score

Chance Predictor FAQs

How was the data for the PDr Chance Predictor collected?
The information featured in the PDr Chance Predictor was collected from the 2016-2017 matriculation year and incorporates admissions data from all medical schools shown. The information is verified and analyzed retrospectively, with the most consistent top factors being extracted as inputs for the tool. The median GPAs and MCAT scores were provided.

Where can I find more information on matriculant data online?
US News Education, and the AAMC’s Medical School Admission Requirements website are all comprehensive resources that are available to medical school applicants.

How many schools should I apply to?
It varies, but the national average is around 12-15 schools. This number can be limited by the amount of money and time that you have to complete the applications. In the face of an incredibly variable application process, the more schools you apply to, the higher the chance of being accepted. For example, a lot of California applicants apply to 20-30 school because California state schools are very competitive. At the end of the day, unless you are a superstar applicant, you should be aiming to applying to at least 20 schools.

What do each of the categories mean?
Your GPA, MCAT, state of residence, and ethnicity were used to create an individual ProspectiveDoctor Predictor score based on an algorithm that we created. Each school is also assigned a ProspectiveDoctor Predictor Score. Your score is then compared to schools’ scores to help decide the following categories.

  • Far undershoot
    : This means that these schools are numerically too low to be considered a “safety school.” Medical schools that are too far beneath your target range may reject you on the basis that they don’t want to waste an interview spot on an applicant that they feel will be going to a higher tier school. In essence, a school’s interviews spots are precious to them in order to fill their class; a lower tier medical school will not interview a bunch of overqualified applicants and run the risk of not filling their class with enough acceptances. Apply to these sparingly.
  • Undershoot
    : Like with a “far undershoot,” these schools are numerically below your target range, and you run the risk of running into some of the same issues as the “far undershoot” schools.That being said, these schools are more appropriate for spreading some of your applications to, especially if you feel weak in some of the other areas of your application. Apply to a small handful of these.
  • Target
    : This range is your sweet spot. You have the best chance of getting accepted into a medical school when your range more closely mirrors the range that they accept. There are no “safety schools,” and being overqualified for other schools is not necessarily an advantage. Apply to more of these.
  • Reach
    : These are the schools that you are still in contention for, but your success will rely more on the other strengths of your application. Apply to a small handful of these.
  • Far Reach
    : These schools will rely upon massive compensatory strengths in your application for you to have any candidacy. Apply to these sparingly.

The schools are ranked by their individual ProspectiveDoctor Predictor scores. That means that schools listed at the top of the “Target” category are more similar to the “Reach” category than the “Undershoot” category. In addition, schools listed on the bottom of the “Target” category are more similar to the “Undershoot” category than the “Reach” category.

Why do my chances change with different ethnicity categories?
While admissions decisions are not made on the basis of ethnicity, the effects of ethnicity on admissions is statistically well defined. You can learn more about this on the AAMC website.

What is the cGPA?
This is the cumulative GPA from your latest academic degree, whether that was a BA, BS, or a Masters degree. Although admissions committees will see all of your postsecondary grades, for screening purposes this is the GPA that is normally seen.

What is the sGPA?
This is the science GPA, otherwise known as the BCPM (Biology, Chemistry, Physics, Math). This number is used by schools to determine your competency in core science disciplines. If your sGPA is above or below your cumulative GPA it can have an impact on your candidacy that is factored into our chance predictor.

What is the MCAT?
The MCAT is essentially the qualification test for applying to medical schools. The MCAT underwent some changes during 2015 that are reflected in the Chance Predictor.

Why am I inputting State?
Applying to medical schools as an in-state resident often improves your chances during the admissions process, as many state schools accept less than 20% of students from out-of-state (OOS). Often, in-state tuition also tends to be lower. The PDr Chance Predictor takes these factors into account by inputting state of residency.

  • No OOS: This school accepts 0% of applicants from out-of-state
  • Minimal OOS: This schools accepts less than 25% of applicants from out-of-state
  • Moderate OOS: This schools accepts between 26-50% of applicants from out-of-state
  • Majority OOS: This schools accepts more than 50% of applicants from out-of-state

What is OOS?
If you are an OOS student, that means that your permanent state residence is different from the state of the school.

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